Demand side weakened, ABS callback will continue

Since the beginning of the week, several major ABS manufacturers (oil, Zhenjiang Chi Mei, Tianjin Dagu, Ningbo Taiwan) have lowered the offer; Friday, Sinopec East China will also downgrade 300-600 yuan / ton. Manufacturers, from the downstream home appliance terminal and the market orders lower than the previous; traders, the spot transactions also fell sharply. ABS market two weeks since the decline of the market is basically that “callback” has come

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If you look at ABS cost side, from the upstream raw material support overall good: by the September futures delivery and the National Day before the stocking and other effects, the domestic styrene market rose steadily; butadiene domestic manufacturers price cuts, the price High down; acrylonitrile is still tight supply, the price firm.

From the supply and demand side, due to ABS higher apparent profits, the current industry overall load higher. As the most important downstream of the ABS plate – the white goods industry, especially since last October, the air conditioning market, almost for the ABS plant to bring almost one-third of the year’s orders. From January to May in 2017, China’s air-conditioning market retail sales and retail sales scale reached 23.99 million units and 84 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 33.2% and 38.8%, especially in the past three months, air-conditioning domestic market is showing Explosive growth. June 2017 household air-conditioning production 13.91 million units, an increase of 44.8%, sales of 14,134,700 units, an increase of 41.4%. Which domestic shipments 955.44 million units, an increase of 66.8%. Exports 458.03 million units, an increase of 7.3%. But maintained a full year of air conditioning market “high growth”, the fourth quarter or difficult to sustain. On the one hand, with the end of the air conditioning sales season, industry inventories began to increase again, the procurement of raw materials ABS enthusiasm will be significantly reduced; the other hand, the state’s real estate regulation led to local real estate market downturn, and air conditioning really just need to Real estate, if the real estate market situation is not good, then the air conditioning industry is bound to be affected.

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In addition, since last week, ABS gold market continued to decline: on the one hand high turnover blocked, the RMB market offer lower, on the other hand, November supply due to weak buying intentions and the market uncertainty, the actual negotiations scarce.

Business analysts ABS analysts believe that: “double” on the ABS market impact should not be the current, the spot circulation of low-cost shipments have increased, ABS market in October or face the possibility of accelerated decline.

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