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Since the beginning of the week, several major ABS manufacturers (oil, Zhenjiang Chi Mei, Tianjin Dagu, Ningbo Taiwan) have lowered the offer; Friday, Sinopec East China will also downgrade 300-600 yuan / ton. Manufacturers, from the downstream home appliance terminal and the market orders lower than the previous; traders, the spot transactions also fell sharply. ABS market two weeks since the decline of the market is basically that “callback” has come
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If you look at ABS cost side, from the upstream raw material support overall good: by the September futures delivery and the National Day before the stocking and other effects, the domestic styrene market rose steadily; butadiene domestic manufacturers price cuts, the price High down; acrylonitrile is still tight supply, the price firm.
From the supply and demand side, due to ABS higher apparent profits, the current industry overall load higher. As the most important downstream of the ABS plate – the white goods industry, especially since last October, the air conditioning market, almost for the ABS plant to bring almost one-third of the year’s orders. From January to May in 2017, China’s air-conditioning market retail sales and retail sales scale reached 23.99 million units and 84 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 33.2% and 38.8%, especially in the past three months, air-conditioning domestic market is showing Explosive growth. June 2017 household air-conditioning production 13.91 million units, an increase of 44.8%, sales of 14,134,700 units, an increase of 41.4%. Which domestic shipments 955.44 million units, an increase of 66.8%. Exports 458.03 million units, an increase of 7.3%. But maintained a full year of air conditioning market “high growth”, the fourth quarter or difficult to sustain. On the one hand, with the end of the air conditioning sales season, industry inventories began to increase again, the procurement of raw materials ABS enthusiasm will be significantly reduced; the other hand, the state’s real estate regulation led to local real estate market downturn, and air conditioning really just need to Real estate, if the real estate market situation is not good, then the air conditioning industry is bound to be affected.
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In addition, since last week, ABS gold market continued to decline: on the one hand high turnover blocked, the RMB market offer lower, on the other hand, November supply due to weak buying intentions and the market uncertainty, the actual negotiations scarce.
Business analysts ABS analysts believe that: “double” on the ABS market impact should not be the current, the spot circulation of low-cost shipments have increased, ABS market in October or face the possibility of accelerated decline.
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First, the price trend
According to business statistics, the domestic market average price of 133.75 yuan / ton, the weekend the average price of the domestic market was 131.25 yuan / ton, prices fell 1.87%, down 39.38% year on year. September 22 hydrochloric acid commodity index was 34.54, unchanged from yesterday, compared with the highest point in the cycle 100.00 points (2011-09-12) fell 65.46%, compared with the lowest point on September 5, 2012 17.98 points rose 92.10%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far))
Second, the market analysis
Products: weak price of hydrochloric acid this week, the basic trend of the general continued early. Jiangsu hydrochloric acid market trend is relatively weak, 31% of the province’s synthetic acid enterprises to maintain prices in the 1-50 yuan / ton, hydrochloric acid shipments is not high, the price of hydrochloric acid in the late no favorable factors no price increase space. Shandong hydrochloric acid market shipments in general, 31% synthetic acid prices factory 1-40 yuan / ton, by-product hydrochloric acid volume, by-product hydrochloric acid shipping subsidies to increase, is expected to post favorable factors to support multi-dimensional stable market-based. Domestic hydrochloric acid market trend is low, the main atmosphere of the transaction downturn. By-product hydrochloric acid shipments pressure, down the shipping freight-based. Subsequent hydrochloric acid serious excess.
Industrial chain: the upstream salt prices more stable market, and the downstream use of acid enterprises lack of environmental protection measures, the waste acid treatment and other issues difficult to break through the general demand for hydrochloric acid. Hydrochloric acid market weak operation, by-product impact on the market, hydrochloric acid is expected to no rebound power.
Third, the market outlook forecast
Business analysts believe that: the upstream raw material salt relative to maintain stability, the downstream renewal of the weak. Domestic long-term downturn in the hydrochloric acid market, the trend is low, the domestic market posted the phenomenon of universal. Business analysts believe that the recent positive factors to support the late still maintain a weak market, the market price or there are 10-20 yuan / ton or so dropping space.
Lubon Industry Co.,Ltd not clear restart time, is expected after the first National Day, the manufacturers since the end of August parking, inventory consumption gradually. Degada Chemical last weekend to restart, the load is low, the market supply in general. Shandong earth Su Pu normal operation, but in September and October export orders more.
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Xinhua Chemical propylene low load, acetone conversion in September, the current implementation of the previous order-based. Kailing chemical 100,000 tons / year acetone plant suspension, 20,000 tons / year device full load operation, the output of the implementation of export orders, is expected in September Kailing market supply is limited. East China port before the end of September to add 2,000 tons. Grow into a new can run stable, support the South China market stock. In addition, in the second half of September there are three ships of isopropyl alcohol to supplement the South China market (another boat is not sure time), before the end of September the supply market in South China tensions gradually ease.
Traders are holding low, the terminal has not yet stocked, is expected to have a wave before the National Day procurement. Although the scene worried about the nineteen approaching, environmental inspection will continue to affect the terminal started, but the venue also respond to demand in September than the previous see.
The above figure reflects the gross profit of the propylene and acetone isopropanol plant, the gross profit margin of the propylene process, but the net profit is still no, the cost pressure has not changed. In addition, imports from 9 to 10 months in general, high import costs. Not only that, Southeast Asia and the United States part of the demand to switch from China, however, CFR Southeast Asia 950 US dollars / ton, for example, isopropanol exports margin higher profits, 9-10 domestic production enterprises to undertake about half of export orders.
In summary, the National Day before the supply and demand side of the East good isopropyl alcohol (raw surface no bad), the market bullish. South China supply supplement, the biggest positive weakened, before the end of the shock or finishing operation, and in view of the high import costs and expectations of East China expected bullish, so South China finishing space is limited.
Downstream procurement enthusiasm decreased
By the cost of lifting and lack of supply boost, PVC prices since June has risen sharply. However, the high price is difficult to conduct down, coupled with the import arbitrage window open, PVC prices turn down. Technically, since the fourth quarter of last year, PVC out of a large arc bottom form, 8,000 yuan / ton more pressure. Last week, the price fell below the pre-support line, the weakness has been.
Environmental protection affect the weakening of calcium carbide prices on the weak
This year, the intensity of environmental inspection is unprecedented, on the one hand that the determination of environmental pollution control, on the other hand hope that through the policy approach to eliminate backward production capacity to achieve supply side reform. In this case, a large area of chemical enterprises to stop production, chlor-alkali industry has not been spared. Affected by the overall supply of calcium carbide shortage. Small capacity of the calcium carbide furnace are basically in a parking state, even if the production is still high-capacity calcium carbide furnace, but also forced by environmental pressure, planned parking maintenance. Not only that, in some areas of the strict inspection of dangerous goods, resulting in poor transport of calcium carbide, and further pushed up the price of calcium carbide.
However, with the depth of environmental maintenance, the market for the resulting shortage of calcium carbide supply has been gradually adapted. At present, in addition to the Central Plains part of the provinces, calcium carbide supply tends to be stable, prices continue to rise kinetic energy.
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In addition, at present, PVC enterprises in the normal range of calcium carbide stocks, calcium carbide short-term tight supply capacity to enhance the follow-up bargaining power to enhance the transaction, reducing the possibility of a substantial increase in calcium carbide prices.
Supply shortage situation improves import arbitrage space open
According to customs statistics, in July, China’s imports of PVC 53069.43 tons, an increase of 0.51%. In addition, from January to July, imports increased by 13.48% year on year. As the domestic PVC prices continue to rise, the situation of imports of goods premiums reversed. In this case, the import arbitrage window opened, a direct result of the July domestic PVC imports increased. If domestic prices continue to rise, then this behavior will be more obvious. However, the law of one price will gradually sharpen the difference. In addition to supply, low inventory is the main reason for PVC prices rose. Recently, although there are signs of increased inventory, but the overall inventory is still low, roughly 200,000 tons. Later, with the resumption of parking devices and the decline in downstream orders, inventory may accumulate. And this will undoubtedly suppress PVC prices.
Downstream demand for poor performance difficult to conduct down
This year the real estate industry as a whole started to decline, for the procurement of building materials is weak, PVC prices increase the cost increase is difficult to conduction to the terminal, which led to downstream pipe and profile profits decline, its resistance to high prices PVC is heating up. In addition, with the passage of time, the market for the follow-up demand for the decline in concerns to strengthen the industry mentality has changed, the late downstream will become a stronger industrial chain side, it is bound to lower the price of PVC procurement.
Terminal demand is poor, the enthusiasm of the downstream business procurement decline. In this case, the high cost is difficult to conduct down, and ultimately feedback in the industry chain. It should be noted that last week, PVC prices fell too much, below 7,000 yuan / ton and an important support this week is expected to oversold bounce, the operation can be back to the end of the rebound.