The second stage (March): late device maintenance good news early release quickly pull up wide
In March, the domestic PC market quickly pull up wide, the market was pulled up to the first half of 2016 high offer reference in East China in the low-end mainstream injection level negotiations in 17800-18000 yuan / ton. With the latter device maintenance good news release on the market to boost the fermentation to the extreme, the very up strong emotions, up $PC in March outside, imports of high cost, coupled with crude oil and bisphenol A pull up a boost, multi positive support, the market offer to be high, the downstream plant although some replenishment behavior, but firm the growth of the demand side, still maintain the operation of single terminal Jiancang stock. Late, as part of ocean supply to Hong Kong, the goods inside the tight atmosphere eased slightly, limit the market to continue upward, and after the early continuous wide rise, demand growth follow fatigue, buying relatively high terminal conflict, but with the April outside the talks, some dollars wide upward, coupled with the current shortage of supporting part of the spot, middle sellers the mood is obvious, offer high holding firm, buying high priced terminal hesitate, trading in general.

The third phase (4-6 months): demand continued weakness in narrow down

After a rapid wide March domestic PC market pull up, the downstream plant cost pressure, coupled with the current demand for follow-up is weak, the downstream plant procurement more rational wait-and-see, high trading is not easy, middlemen offer delivery pressure, gradually loosening. And early in the device maintenance condition gradually resume production, the industry outlook manufacturers supply supply is expected to improve, to support a weaker market offer, in addition to spending the off-season gradually come, the market demand is shrinking, the lower factory orders enthusiasm is not high, the contradiction between supply and demand gradually highlight, industry mentality has been a certain degree of pressure, coupled with raw materials bisphenol A zoudie lead inside the bearish sentiment unabated, middlemen to avoid risks, the cautious, the overall market trading atmosphere performance is weak, but considering the $PC offer is still high, intermediate positions low, to some extent limit the market down.

The fourth phase (7-12 months): all positive Qi behind, contrary to expectation inflation

The second half of the domestic PC market offer continued to climb up, the three quarter gains more gentle, the fourth quarter rally is relatively rapid, the upstream market long time, manufacturers profit margins continue to deepen, the market offer a high in 2016, the reference of East China in the low-end mainstream injection level talks in 21200-22500 yuan / ton, compared to the same period last year, the highest increase to 38.89%.

The three quarter, the supply of goods on the market spot gradually tightened, and the raw material bisphenol A sharply upward, manufacturers profit margins being squeezed, the factory offer very price up, traders reluctant to sell low-cost, offer higher, but due to the G20 summit, downstream factories by production, limited production policy constraints, coupled with Hangzhou and the surrounding logistics operation poor, demand is shrinking, which restrict the market gains.

The fourth quarter of the market boom leading factors mainly include the following points:

First, manufacturers limited very up, stock shortage intensified. At the end of the year sales pressure of domestic PC production enterprises is not quite up to maintain the Trader Limited operation, firm on the market output is low, the spot market supply shortage, a hard to find goods has become the norm. In addition demand remains weak, traders having save worry, hailun cautious, high cost of goods stocking will further exacerbate the shortage of Jiancang, market outlook supply shortage degree.

Second, the implementation of new transport, logistics costs. At the end of September “transportation vehicle management regulations” implemented, shortly after the transportation costs continue to follow up, or in the vicinity of 35%, to further increase the cost of surface pressure.

Third, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar devaluation of the fast wide cost pressure. Since October, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate fell below 6.7, 6.8 and 6.9 in several important points, PC as the dependence on imports of up to 70% on the side of the product, the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, directly increases the cost of imports of pressure, power exchange speculation rising mood.

Fourth, the cost of raw material bisphenol A support. Beginning in mid November, raw material bisphenol PC production enterprises soared, cost pressures increase, power production enterprises operating quite up to PC.

Fifth, the domestic supply side reform.

The current world economic growth prospects are still large uncertainties, commodity demand warming trend is not clear, the supply of commodity market factors still play a decisive role. The frequent international capital flows, not only failed to effectively drive the growth of the real economy, but to promote the excess flow to real estate funds, futures, gold and other virtual economy, these lead to asset price turns up, some support at the same time on commodity prices, but also exacerbated the volatility in commodity markets.