First of all, the long period, at present, the coal water slurry process of urea in China with strong competitiveness in the world, is expected to fall in the price of coal, natural gas prices continued upward and North American interaction devaluation expectations, we estimate that the manufacturing cost of the future coal urea process in China Advanced, and the total cost have a great chance less than in North America gas from urea.

Secondly, the spring ushered in the peak demand, middlemen inventory low: about 60% spring season urea demand will reach annual agricultural urea demand (25 million tons), from the beginning of winter wheat turning green fertilizer, continuous demand for new convergence.

In addition, the import and export trade, a short period of time, China’s agriculture is expected with the urea demand and export is expected to be slightly under pressure, but in the export tariffs or will be canceled, and the rapid growth of demand for urea industrial drive.

In addition, in the inventory, the grassroots research, at present only half of the middleman inventory in less than 15 years over the same period, the social stock is more intense, and in the high coal price situation, the current stock brokers will still not strong.

Finally, the most important is this year compared with the usual, light storage delayed, in November and December China is expected to yield an uremic decline, resulting in a lack of demand to stabilize the spring season and in the subsequent stocking, continue to meet the requirement of the background, small series is expected to boom cycle urea is expected to continue until the middle of 17. (of course, the specific situation is good on demand in some areas may be)

At present, affected by the domestic environmental factors continue to reduce urea enterprises operating rate, cost pressures, and the price of coal prices and freight upstream raw materials increased again rise, resulting in domestic enterprises to increase the price of urea. So, according to many factors oriented, the overall market is expected in 2017 will usher in the spring of urea “own spring”