On the one hand by the coal, crude oil and other bulk raw material prices support;
On the other hand is the verification of environmental protection, equipment maintenance and other factors make the industry supply and demand pattern improvement.
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The recent northwest methanol plant accident parking, methanol supply was reduced, while Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places of the environmental protection examination has not diminished, small and medium manufacturing enterprises to limit production, production makes supply decline. With the increasing of subsequent snow weather, will transport goods northwest and other places the cost increases further, the regional tension in the supply and demand pattern or will continue.
The latest price The East China market, methanol prices rose to 2850 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan, of which Ningbo market price has been close to 3000 yuan per ton. Other areas continue to push up sharply, to increase 100 yuan per ton or more, Shandong, Anhui and other places more than the price of more than 2800 yuan per ton, the majority of enterprises in the northwest part of the enterprise once again raised, 3 times increase to 2650 yuan per ton. The port market, falling inventories, methanol prices have nearly 2800 yuan per ton to 3000 yuan. Near the end of the year around the stock up or speed, tight supply and demand for methanol prices is expected to post strong impetus, methanol prices are still up space.
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Industry fundamentals At present, China’s methanol production capacity of nearly 70 million tons, the operating load is low, the actual production capacity is far lower than in January this year to October, the cumulative production is only 35 million 300 thousand tons of methanol. Downstream market, methanol to olefins has gradually become an important new growth point of the industry, will effectively boost the market demand. Since last year, the domestic methanol to olefin project into production peak, the new capacity is expected to reach 9 million 580 thousand tons of ethylene and propylene, which purchased methanol demand of about 24 million 130 thousand tons. The new Austrian shares owned equity methanol production capacity of 738 thousand tons of methanol product gross margin over 30%. Baotailong and Yuan Xing energy also has the capacity of methanol, the business income accounted for the proportion of revenues were 10.2% and 13.25%.
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Device maintenance, Affected by environmental factors such as Henan, Hebei and other places more than methanol plant parking down the negative, the average operating rate fell to 8.78% in November. Downstream market, enterprises operating rate increase in December 1st, domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant the average operating rate of 85.73% over the previous week, up 10.32 percentage points, Yulin Shenhua device can resume normal operation, the domestic methanol to olefins plant overall operating level increased significantly, before two enterprise parking device ether have also restarted operating rate a slight increase in 3.03% than the previous week. The downstream operating rate increased, especially the increase of methanol to olefins plant operating rate, the supporting effect on the upstream price of methanol.
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Environmental pressure, As an alternative fuel of methanol gasoline, clean is better than conventional gasoline, and exhaust emissions are low, is gradually recognized by the market. 11 Yuegong ministry has proposed, will further deepen the Methanol-fueled car pilot, to establish and perfect the standard system, strengthen policy guidance, actively explore the development mode of Methanol-fueled car, promote Methanol-fueled car development for promoting vehicle fuel diversification, reduce vehicle emissions, plays an important role in energy security. At present, Shanxi, Shanghai and other places have Methanol-fueled car pilot, the pilot areas with subsequent expansion will bring new products for methanol market space.
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