The industrial chain upstream raw materials: domestic benzene market lack of clear guidelines, the continuation of the weak consolidation trend, South Korea fell outside the decline, continue to weigh on domestic buying atmosphere, the domestic market of East China sentiment weak, buying intention is poor, Shandong area of the lower reaches of buying enthusiasm is poor, the lack of clear guidelines on news, trading atmosphere deserted, port trade daily dish down during the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream stocking, manufacturers offer to decline, limited space, limiting the scope of the price adjustment, the market weakness consolidation in the short term, or is likely to continue downward. The downstream procurement is relatively stable, the price adjustment.

Macro: in 2016, the business community commodity price index (BPI) continued to rise, at the beginning of 668, at the end of the year rose to 862 points, up 194 points. December 28th BPI commodity price index for 862 points, representing the highest point period 1019 (2012-04-10) fell by 15.41%, compared to 02 in 2016 03, the lowest point of 660 months rose 30.61%. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-12-01 so far).

Market forecast

At present people inside a good attitude, the price from the cost of support is relatively high, the industry is still optimistic about the market outlook, the latter still up space. The next step depends on the trend of phenol and the cost of raw materials supporting effect, if the latter hydrogenation of benzene and benzene phenol has continued to rise, is expected to cost callback; if the temporary relief of phenol market stability.

Factory this week domestic phenol listing prices fell sharply, the overall average fell 600 yuan / ton, Sinopec have cut 600 yuan / ton, the domestic weekend factory price of 7233.33 yuan / ton, down 6.87% this week, compared to the same period last year rose 26.53%.

Analysis and review

Products: domestic phenol market fell sharply, the drop affected by raw material benzene bad factors, pre fried up now too rational to fall is also an important reason. Following last week’s petrochemical manufacturers concentrated phenol down 700 yuan / ton, this week Petrochemical phenol concentration reduced by 600 yuan / ton, two times larger decline. Unit: Yangzhou is the friends on the end of the month to drive the normal operation at present, 160 thousand tons of 3-acetyltropolone Takahashi old parking device, lihuayi device running into 7, West Yanshan 200 thousand tons of 3-acetyltropolone device is still the parking state.

Recent domestic unsaturated resin finishing the main market steady light. The mainstream enterprise temporarily maintain wait-and-see posture, follow up the downturn, coupled with the overall inventory low, maintained order delivery, the average operating in the 3.7 resin into a horizontal load, compared with the previous year.

The morning of December 29th, the Jiangsu area two glycol shocks move the center of gravity, the market demand is weak. The spot at 7250-7260 yuan / ton, delivery of 7230-7240 yuan / ton, about 7240-7250 yuan / ton, stock turnover 7240 yuan / ton. January futures delivery reported 7250 yuan / ton, 7230 yuan / ton, about 7230-7250 yuan / ton, January futures turnover of 7220 yuan / ton. In the normal operation of oil company, Fushun Petrochemical 60 thousand tons / year ethylene glycol unit prices stable, the current local implementation of 7900 yuan / ton factory. Southern China two glycol market shocks, this week the market strong push, middlemen and factory intervention carefully, some businesses offer no intention to market very price upward trend, discuss the market reference intention in the 7300-7350 yuan / ton or sent to a tank. The downstream plant load is not high, the market rational intervention.

Two glycol market shot blocked the high shock pressure digestion, the East China market sporadic price 7240 yuan / ton near the delivery price level of partial, high cautious trading. At present, the focus of the market lies in the two approaches, part of the terminal factory will have a moderate margin, and related products of ethylene glycol also has boosted the trend is stronger.

The recent two DEG to maintain high shock pattern.

In December 29th, Weifang iron and steel group benzene factory price raised to 5300 yuan / ton, the annual production capacity of 800 thousand tons of coke oven plant. Shanxi area of crude benzene Budie, the mainstream of the market turnover of 5200-5250 yuan / ton, businesses cautious wait and see.

At the end of the stage, the outer continuous closed up to boost the market to stabilize, but the lack of good news to stimulate the weak under downstream buying, mainly crude market running low, due to limited production effects, reduce the output of Crude Benzol, coke enterprises inventory pressure, more wait-and-see, low price of goods is not much.

Production agreement to promote, oil prices rose, boosted the commodity market operation mood, benzene industry chain by positive boost, the listing price hike for Sinopec benezene. In addition to the downstream hydrogenation of benzene, benzene over the high price auction market introduction, pull up significantly, crude rose market opening.

The market soared this month after crude rational callback, overall is at the beginning of the month rose 553.33 yuan / ton, or 11.87%. Among them, the mid month period rose to a maximum of 5762 yuan / ton, or up to 23.01%.

by the environmental impact of Shandong, Heze and Tangshan area of hydrogenation of benzene to manufacturers operating rate is greatly reduced, some manufacturers directly reduce the supply of parking spot, give some support. The market from 8000 yuan / ton to 7200 yuan / ton and 7000 yuan / ton near. With synchronous zoudie crude benzol hydrogenation of benzene, manufacturers operating rate increased gradually, the price fell to the market anticipated, the market price gradually reduced, the market began to stabilize.

In December 29th, hydrogenation of benzene Market in Hebei area narrow finishing Handan Xingtai market talks in 6900-7000 yuan / ton, Tangshan mainstream transaction at 6900 yuan / ton. Jiangsu area of hydrogenation of benzene to market stalemate has not changed, still the downstream demand procurement. Today to reference in 7200-7400 yuan / ton. Shanxi area of hydrogenation of benzene to discuss the market – the atmosphere is heavy, downstream manufacturers purchase enthusiasm is not high, but the spot price is limited, limited reference market talks in 6900 yuan / ton. The volume of crude benzene in south central area increased, but the turnover in low. Henan market turnover mainstream 5200-5250 yuan / ton. Benzene market running low in southwest area of Yunnan mainstream transaction in 4500-4600 yuan / ton, many businesses out of stock, the main supply contract households. Shanxi area of crude benzene Budie, the mainstream of the market turnover of 5200-5250 yuan / ton, businesses cautious wait and see.

With pure WaiPan prices tend to be within the range of finishing, floor mentality must be supported by social business analysts forecast: hydrogenation of benzene hydrogenation of benzene or at the beginning of next month before finishing the transient stability.