recently in Suzhou Jinji Lake in the opening of the “2016 international energy reform forum” has become the domestic energy sector the highest annual event.

Learned that two years ago in the central financial work leading group of the sixth meeting by top clear requirements to formulate the “revolution in energy production and consumption strategies 2016-2030 strategic planning” upcoming implementation.

At the meeting, deputy director of the Energy Bureau from the director, to all, almost full attendance, the international renewable energy agency director general, national grid chairman and general manager of PetroChina and the energy sector known as the collective……

State Councilor Wang Yong said at the forum, in September this year, Chinese first submitted to the United Nations the ratification of the Paris agreement, and to promote the G20 summit in Hangzhou on energy and renewable energy, energy efficiency, to formulate a plan of action.

Compared with oil production farce of such a thing, really seems worry more natural gas. Natural gas as an energy source, can be reduced coal And the amount of oil, thus greatly improve the problem of environmental pollution; natural gas as a clean energy, can reduce sulfur dioxide and dust emissions of nearly 100%, a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and NOx emissions by 50%, and helps to reduce the formation of acid rain, relieve the greenhouse effect, fundamentally improve the quality of the environment. In addition, natural gas is non-toxic, easy to distribute, the proportion of light in the air, not accumulation of explosive gas, the gas is relatively safe. With the family safe and reliable use of natural gas, will greatly improve the Home Furnishing environment, improve the quality of life.

This year, G20 energy ministers held on the occasion held a “natural gas” activities, Let the members of the G20 leaders are aware of the natural gas to solve environmental problems and climate issues in the role, and the role it played in the transformation of energy and air quality problems when dealing with.

With the rapid development of natural gas, natural gas is expected to grow as the world’s largest energy. The shale gas revolution will also be expected to change the international energy pattern, reshaping the world industrial layout, and to change the international geopolitical relations.

Over the past 40 years, the Middle East has been the focus of the international political arena, OPEC to safeguard their own interests, often to ensure that international oil prices stabilized at a high level by limiting the production, resulting in a significant impact on the world economy. In the future, although the oil will take a long-term energy strategy in the core position, but with natural gas instead of oil to a certain extent, the Middle East region’s energy status may decline, oil producing countries in the Middle East will not be happy to dnunbing.

Now contact the gas and people’s daily life more and more closely, affects people’s basic necessities of life. Clothes made of synthetic fiber raw materials from natural gas processing people, people usually cook meals and travel also rely on natural gas. In 2015, China’s natural gas demand is 191 billion cubic meters. In 2016, natural gas prices and tighter environmental protection will boost the natural gas demand growth is expected to rise, natural gas demand will exceed 200 billion cubic meters.

A pilot unit — Chinese high-end National Economic Research Institute of petroleum released the “2050 world energy outlook and China”. The report pointed out that in the current policy scenario, by 2045, natural gas will surpass oil to become the world’s largest energy.

Recently, the Ministry of land and resources, mineral resources assessment center director Zhang Dawei to participate in the Shanghai international ECF shale gas forum 2016 said, China is entering the era of great development of unconventional natural gas, shale gas “13th Five-Year” production goals can be achieved, even conservative.

review: with the winter gas peak, part of the natural gas supply shortage, in order to ease the security for the pressure in the oil plan since November 20th raised the non resident natural gas price 10%-20%. insiders said that the winter supply tension under the peak gas price increase is the market the behavior of upstream and downstream enterprises, enterprises need to fully negotiate prices.

Natural gas is referred to as the existence of mixed gas in underground rock reservoir with hydrocarbon as the main body, the proportion of about 0.65, lighter than air, colorless, tasteless, non-toxic and has the characteristics of.

The main component of alkane gas, including methane accounted for the majority, there is a small amount of ethane, propane and butane, in addition there are hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide and nitrogen and water vapor and a small amount of carbon monoxide and trace rare gases, such as helium and argon.

According to the plan, China will vigorously promote the large-scale development of bio gas. By 2020, the initial formation of a certain scale of green low-carbon bio gas industry, the annual output reached 8 billion cubic meters, construction of 160 biogas demonstration counties and recycling of agricultural demonstration county.

Planning said that China will actively develop biomass fuel heating. With the resource and market conditions in the region, especially in the area of Beijing and Tianjin air pollution situation is grim, out of coal-fired boiler heavier tasks of Hebei Shandong, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, northeast, and coal consumption more rural areas, accelerate the promotion of biomass briquette boiler for heat.

Planning requirements, the steady development of biomass power generation. In the area of rich agricultural and forestry resources and manpower, material collection and load, promote the biomass direct combustion power generation to cogeneration; reasonable layout in the developed area of power generation of municipal solid waste incineration power, accelerate the development of the western region in waste incineration; livestock wastes resources, straw rich Township, promote the biogas power generation project construction conditions.
The plan, accelerate the development of advanced bio liquid fuel technology development and industrialization demonstration. By 2020, bio liquid fuel utilization volume reached more than 6 million tons.

Planning estimates, by 2020, the new energy industry investment of about 196 billion yuan. Among them, the new biomass power generation investment of about 40 billion yuan, bio gas new investment of about 120 billion yuan, briquette biomass heating industry new investment of about 18 billion yuan, biofuel new investment of about 18 billion yuan. The biomass energy industry, the annual sales income of about 120 billion yuan, providing 4 million jobs, increase the income of farmers 20 billion yuan.

The two is the development and utilization of distributed business experience;

Three is the professional market degree is low, technical level needs to be improved.

The key technology of cellulose ethanol and engineering has not been a breakthrough, to develop efficient mixed fermentation device, large low emission biomass boilers and other modern equipment, improve the bio gas and briquette engineering level; four is the standard system is not perfect, and the policy is not perfect.

By 2020, the basic realization of the commercialization of biomass energy utilization and scale

Planning said that biomass annual use of about 58 million tons of standard coal. Biomass power installed capacity reached 15 million kilowatts, the annual generating capacity of 90 billion kwh, the biomass direct combustion power generation 7 million kilowatts, urban garbage incineration power of 7 million 500 thousand kilowatts, 500 thousand kilowatts biogas power generation; bio gas utilization volume of 8 billion cubic meters; bio liquid fuel utilization capacity of 6 million tons; annual use of 30 million biomass briquette ton.

The National Energy Bureau announced the 5 “biomass energy development” 13th Five-Year “plan”, by 2020, the basic realization of biomass commercialization and large-scale utilization of biomass, annual use of about 58 million tons of standard coal, the annual sales income of about 120 billion yuan, providing 4 million jobs, increase the income of farmers 20 billion yuan.

China has abundant biomass resources, energy utilization potential

As of 2015, the amount of biomass by about 35 million tons of standard coal, the commercialization of biomass energy utilization capacity of about 18 million tons of standard coal. Liquid fuel and biomass power generation industry has formed a certain scale, biomass fuels, bio gas and other industries have been started, showing a good momentum of development.

China’s current biomass energy there are still some problems in the:

One is the community biomass is not fully aware, in some places even limit the briquette using biomass, biomass energy development is restricted by lead;

at the end of November at the Vienna meeting, OPEC members for the first time in 8 years to reach agreement to cut the market by surprise, bullish factors to stimulate the international oil prices in recent days continuous pulled. Among them, New York crude oil from the $45 / barrel rose to $52 / barrel, a record high since July 2015. Although OPEC will help ease the problem of excess supply of crude oil, but there are also concerns about the industry supply and demand pattern of its good painstakingly created will also benefit to recovery of shale oil, shale oil in the U. S., weaken the positive effect brought by OPEC, ultimately limiting the rise in oil prices space.

The dollar rate hike cycle has been formed

On Friday, the U.S. Department of labor released payrolls continued to show good momentum. Although 11 seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 178 thousand, lower than the expected increase of 175 thousand, but the latest statistics, the unemployment rate is only 4.6%, lower than the expected 4.9%, the lowest level since August 2007.

Due to the strong performance of the U.S. economy (a series of economic data released earlier, including inflation, manufacturing, market and consumer spending are good), almost certainly the Fed will raise interest rates in December. It is understood that the earlier Bloomberg statistics of the federal funds rate futures market implied probability of investors betting on December the Fed rate hike may be as high as 100%. most market participants generally expected, the Fed will be in the next week (Beijing time in December 13 – 15 days) the first rate hike at the FOMC meeting in progress during the year (- 0.75% to 0.50%). Although the dollar index appeared high pullback, but in the long term, the dollar rate hike cycle has been formed, the negative control on oil prices would not disappear.

It is difficult to achieve the desired effect of production

In 2016 1-10 month domestic TDI total imports reached 16580492 kg / kg, the average import price of $2.16, representing a decrease of 72.4%; 1-10 month 2016 domestic TDI total exports reached 120583585 kg, representing an increase of 60.2%, the average export price of 1.75 U.S. dollars / kg.

The import situation analysis, TDI imports continue to decline this year. It is reported that in 2015 the domestic TDI is mainly imported from South Korea and Japan, after the abolition of anti-dumping tax, Japan once again poured into the supply, but due to poor overall domestic market last year, annual imports declined TDI. Surprisingly, despite the 2016 TDI market improves, imports are still less than last year.

2015-2016 year 1-10 month TDI domestic import and export data comparison

The export situation analysis, this year TDI was good in exports last year, mainly concentrated in the second half of this year, this year showed that the domestic TDI capacity is good, it is understood that in 2016 Chinese TDI production capacity reached 840 thousand tons; output is expected to reach 810 thousand tons. We can see that in 2016 the domestic TDI yield growth significantly, the operating rate of TDI increased significantly, indicating that TDI industry development will tend to balance supply and demand.

In summary， Weak trend of upstream raw material market, the downstream market demand is not enough to support, is expected in 2017 Chinese TDI price trend is still weak.

for nearly three years, the domestic TDI prices continued to hover at 12 thousand -1.7 yuan / ton, the domestic TDI prices this year occurred in the most powerful eruption in October hit the supply of raw materials encountered Koth nitrate force majeure, TDI prices exceeded 50000 yuan / ton, compared with the average price in 2016 1-10 months last year growth of 34.03%.

This is a phase jump, by the end of December 6th, with the recovery of the domestic and foreign enterprises driving device, the tight supply situation has eased, TDI prices have been gradually return to rational, the domestic price fell to 20 thousand yuan range, the monitoring data of HC Chemical Network in East China shows, the price set at 28600 yuan / ton, the price in East China 28000 yuan / ton, East China is priced at 28700 yuan / ton.

2015-2017 domestic TDI price trend

TDI analysis of rose
2016 foreign TDI device maintenance shutdown, fault, caused by the international TDI market supply shortage, the domestic TDI products are exported, resulting in the imbalance between supply and demand in domestic market. From the beginning of the end of March this year, the international TDI market tight supply, foreign users have come to domestic procurement, because this year the TDI export side also led to domestic TDI supply and demand imbalance, the domestic product is out of stock, prices have risen TDI.

In December, by the upstream toluene effect, TDI price rising state weakened, analysis from the supply side perspective, the steady supply of toluene in various regions of our country. East China toluene Market, buying up not smooth, clinch a deal the stalemate; Southern China toluene market buying wait-and-see; North China Trading atmosphere light, the real single transaction is not much, expected future domestic market will trend to maintain a narrow range of toluene.

Weak demand

In 2016 China’s TDI consumption is mainly concentrated in the downstream areas, sponge and products it is understood that the sponge accounted for 73%, accounting for 15%, 6% coating sealant, elastomers and other products accounted for about 6%. Statistical data, the apparent consumption of about 684 thousand tons in 2016 China TDI, compared with 656 thousand and 800 tons in 2015 4.14%. growth is expected in 2016 TDI a slight increase in the amount of consumption in 2015. However, this situation will be restricted in 2017, because the future of real estate investment growth will slow further, sponge, elastomers, adhesives and other downstream market becomes weak, the market demand of TDI next year.

Analysis of import and export